We remain manifest trusting for gold. During the last years of fi VE l' gold has indented on a successive 23%, 25%, 5%, 20% and now on an increase of 23%; for 2007 we preview the price dell' gold to increase of a comparativily modest 18% with a possible point to all the level of time of $850. While a dollar US D' weakening, a production of the stagnation mine, the able prices of the oil to float, continuous a geopolitical tensionamento and the phantom of the ation of the infl can supply a positive context preview that the feeling moreover is supported close increase of the question dell' institutional investor.
However the fragmentation of the gold market that follows consequently can lead well to the problems increasing with the liquidity and volatility of prices moreover is believed that thus it remains high. The Christian of Jeffrey that was bearish in 2006 has turned trusting for 2007. He has previewed quell' gold would sell in a range between $550 and $850 over l' year and the being in average $616. In its opinion: The gold market remains tightened very on a physical base. The production of the mine is not to increase like had fastly be previewed had the impasse nell' to begin new mines and expansions. These are coming on the flow but they are coming more slowly that it had been previewed dall' extractive industry. Sales of the central bank them meantime are diminishing since the central banks have sold them great part dell' gold that wishes for in order selling.
This strengthening of the refueling has worked in the demand for investment that it has remaining high and increased, catching up the volumes record in 2006. While investment the demand can be cooled off rather in 2007, investor are previewed to the enough economic ND of fi/political developments around the world to maintain have interested it in gold like sure port. Introduction: Why gold? 15 the price dell' medium gold in the forecasts formulated for the LBMA for 2008 is $860 and more of the half of the analysts you preview that the price is occasionally beyond $1000.19 the analysts is accosentiti on the question and sull' offer tight dynamic for gold. For how much not there is support between they for the conclusions published from the French Investment bank Cheuveux in the January 2006 that has defied the consent sideboard that the central banks them and the monetary authorities of the world still have possessed approximately 30 000 tons of gold were free to take care themselves in all the sense that they have chosen to.20 the studies of the Cheuveux have concluded that more of the half the estates found of the central bank them already have been assigned to the engagements of sales of gone that they only leave the estates not weighted down approximately 15 000 tons.
Cheuveux more not public a lot l' analysis over the metals and it has not been possible in order to modernize their opinions but they have suggested in their relationship that the prices dell' gold could chiodare to $2000 or more high if it centers them the bank has even been put under pressure from the informed traders of their engagements of sales of gone, or if the anxieties approximately l' economy of the United States develops itself and concluded with the sly observation that l' gold of the `exits hiding when the risk of crisis nancial of fi in terms of ation of the infl or ation of the defl is increased. The forecast LBMA anniversary is a useful base for access all' analysis on gold all' inside a year in course and, since publishes their forecasts that they go behind three years, we can also estimate the consistency of all l' analyst. L' credible analysis moreover is published from other accessible sources and occasionally more currents.
The deep ones of the cover of Web site of the deep ones of the United States directed from Frank Holmes are moreover a case of treasure dell' analysis and of the current information.21 Cits and missions of the possible and impossible United States Frustrated Defi from the economists who have protect their bets with l' characteristic warning `. on one side ' the president American Harry S. Truman has demanded the `once gives to me economist'. fortifying. president 2001 - 2006 Bush has not had never that problem. Its beneficiaries were here to make its offer. If their appointments had other ideas they are concluded. Some months before the presidential November 2004 United States the elections, the lupo of the Martin, an editor of associate of The Financial Times and the relative main commentator of economy have expressed the worries held from many economists approximately Management of Bush when it has written: We are dulled to this end.
The United States are now on the comfortable distance to ruin. They are being guiding along a road of the cits of defi and of the debit external it is that of the fi never increasing scal, that risk is destroying l' accreditation and the total role of the country of the relative currency. Attended of the politicians till the crisis blow. The statesmen preview to them and they are behaved in order to prevent them. What the probability of a such statesman is emerging after l' election? Nearly no, fear.22 16 d and m. y s t f y n g t h as an example or l d p r the C and For the half of 2006 not only was l' sviato announcement 2003 of Bush of the accomplished of mission of the `nell' Irak that moreover clouds its image but the economists has been convinced that the support could not enlist dell' internationally Secretary of the respected Treasure in order to direct the United States outside from the road in order ruining. In you open them Bush 2005 has surprised the markets with an announcement that was name like Secretary of the Treasure Henry Paulson, the president of the investment bank Goldman Sachs. Paulson is no economist fortified. It would not have accepted the responsibilities of the public Ce of offi without assurances on its authority and on the General the expectations were that it has ordered the abilities and l' height in order to negotiate internationally and national to name of the United States. The rst of the fi it has to become aware of its exceptional talent in 2000 in which they have been person in charge from the newspaper of transactions of Sunday for in order writing an article sull' year of the rst of fi of Goldman Sachs like public company. There was without a doubt then approximately the sense in which it would have directed l' company and the previewed one that if anyone could obtain to the taken ones with the cits of defi of the United States of instability. However, at the 2007 end, Paulson humbled from the banking activities of investment the crisis that has come like consequence of the defl of brands dell' lodging that ating and could not to assures the bipartitico contribution to the initiatives in order to correct the cits of defi of the nation and in order obtaining l' economy of the United States behind on a sure course. We stretch to underrate the risks that come with the cits nancial of defi of the United States fi.
This extraordinary analysis revealing on the risks has been date in 2001 from Robert McTeer, then president of the reservoir federal of Dallas: 23 What is my opinion of defi the CIT of checking account? . Partially, the world long has been decided to hold the exceeding dollars that we have put outside buying more that we sell to the rest of the world. And we obtain the species of a free turn. The species of as we are in a mace game and we must never not embed within our integrated circuits. The problem will come when people changes to ideaare approximately the all that one and has decided, perhaps without warning, that one the world has too many exceeding dollars. I do not know what exactly you would happen, but it would not be good. But we have had it upgrades them so that hour we happen for several years and does not have. The majority of the countries that to possess the many equilibriums of the dollar does not have some real reason in order to prime a crisis like that one. Perhaps they would be hurt as well as how much someone otherwise from a such crisis. What is it says: `If you must to the bank the little money, you have a problem. If you must many money, the obtained bank a problem. ' We could be in those situation.24 In Richard 2004 Fischer, successor of the Robert McTeer to federal Dallas Reservoir, also played down the worries in the markets nancial of fi approximately the United States d' increase I crack of checking account. It has said sturdy consumption of the United States ected refl, a key factor to determine development dell' export in the rest of the asked world and: Introduction: Why gold? 17 Where the world would be if the Americans do not live outside their propensione to consumption all that seems good, thinks good, sounds good, have a good sapore? . We supply a service for the rest of the world. If we were making to work un' surplus of checking account or l' surplus trades them, what would happen universal to economic development and what would be the economic consequences? Thus task that we are to make ours must here.